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"Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" have been duking it out all awards season. Now, the two films face their final showdown: They enter the 82nd annual Academy Awards prizefight with nine nominations apiece. While he hasn’t seen all of the Oscar nominations for 2010, he can comment just as well as most of the voters, who haven’t seen them, either. Unlike the official tally, I will whack my choices for your enjoyment – and the old skull and bones that is Price Waterhouse accounting won’t secret my choices away in a vault until March 7, 2010. They can neither stop me nor contain me.



The films – which, coincidentally, are by former husband-and-wife James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow – couldn't be more different. "Avatar" is an eye-popping 3-D science-fiction studio extravaganza: It is the most expensive film ever made and has gone on to be the most successful film ever, earning more than $2 billion so far, worldwide. By contrast, "The Hurt Locker" is a gritty, low-budget, independent film about a bomb-disposal unit in the Iraq War. Though it has earned plenty of accolades this awards season, it has yet to crack the $13-million mark at the box office.

Let’s start with Best Picture

I’ve actually seen four of the 10 nominees, so I’m feeling good about this one.

* “Avatar” – Seen it, and it has certainly been a phenomenon, hasn’t it? I say the wave won’t stop on Oscar night and this 3D marvel will win. Just because the story and characterizations aren’t original or particularly inspired doesn’t mean it doesn’t deserve this recognition.
* “The Blind Side” – I hear Sandra Bullock is nominated for her performance in this one. I haven’t seen it, but I can’t imagine it can win.
* “District 9″ – This is a movie that surprised me a great deal. I expect more good things from Neill Blomkamp in the near future. Does it have dark horse potential?
* “An Education” – No comment.
* “The Hurt Locker” – For the love of Pete, stop with the Middle East war propaganda films, regardless of what side of the fence they’re on.
* “Inglourious Basterds” – Along with “Kill Bill: Volume 1″ and “Jackie Brown,” this is my favorite Tarantino film. But come on… he actually crowns it his masterpiece in the dialogue of the film. If Quentin wasn’t so humble in real life (he isn’t), I wouldn’t believe it.
* “Precious” – For the love of Pete, stop with the obesity and abusive home propaganda films, regardless of what side of the fence they’re on.
* “A Serious Man” – No comment.
* “Up” – I found this to be a touching movie. It loses its way for a while when the old man and boy wander around with the talking dogs and dodo bird, but Pixar knows how to tell good stories. Best Animated Movie, for sure. But the animation giants are getting closer to the top of the heap.
* “Up In The Air” – Perhaps a George Clooney Oscar, but probably not best picture. However, I will put it in dark horse territory.

Best Actor

I’ve seen none of these films, so I’ll go by random impulse and what I know about these performers.

* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” – The Dude abides in a country vein. I’d like to see it.
* George Clooney in “Up In The Air” – The likely winner. I think he’s an excellent actor and chooser of girlfriends.
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man” – An excellent actor, but this isn’t his year.
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” – For the love of Pete, stop with the racial equality propaganda films, regardless of what side of the fence they’re on. I’m a huge Freeman and Clint Eastwood fan. And I work with a guy who’s a rugby yannigan.
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” – Already covered with extreme prejudice.

Best Actress

* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” – As long as the movie continues to speed down the highway at over 55 mph, everyone will be OK.
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” – Great actress who shouldn’t be as upset as she is about her tattoo no longer marking her as being radical. If she doesn’t win, the Precious girl will.
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education” – I have no educational background for this one.
* Gabourey Sibide in “Precious” – Already covered with extreme prejudice, but she may win.
* Meryl Streep in “Julie and Julia” – An absolute chameleon. But I think this movie may be too slight to snare her an award. Of course I haven’t seen it…

Best Supporting Actor

* Matt Damon in “Invictus” – I like him. He won’t win.
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger” – I sometimes like him. He will never win an Oscar.
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station” – Great actor, underrated.
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” – I hear his role is the only good thing about this movie, as Peter Jackson may be devolving back to his “Meet the Feebles” days as a director.
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” – Ab-so-lute-ly. He is excellent as the German colonel. This is a no-doubter.

Best Supporting Actress

* Penelope Cruz in “Nine” – She isn’t in over her head here. Looking at the other nominees, she could even win.
* Vera Farminga in “Up In The Air” – No comment, yet.
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” – Bare minimum, Gyllenhaal still deserves applause for her work in “Secretary.” Watch me applaud.
* Anna Kendrick in “Up In The Air” – No comment, yet.
* Mo’Nique in “Precious” – No, thank you.

Best Director

* James Cameron for “Avatar” – Riding the wave, and it’s no fluke. He is a skilled moviemaker who has made something genuinely visionary. Odds are good, if Bigelow doesn’t snatch it away.
* Kathyn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker” – Odds are good here, too. Or at least that’s the groundswell the media has been trying to start the past few weeks.
* Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds” – He is talented, but he must become a bit less self-congratulatory.
* Lee Daniels for “Precious” – I don’t know.
* Jason Reitman for “Up In The Air” – He knows what he’s doing, and he is in this race.

Best Animated Feature

* “Coraline” – I know of few pop culture figures as overrated as Neil Gaiman. And my daughter didn’t like this movie.
* “Fantastic Mr. Fox” – She did like this one, however. It’s in the running, but I don’t think it will win.
* “The Princess And The Frog” – I suppose this deserves some praise for its groundbreaking elements.
* “The Secret Of Kells” – I don’t know.
* “Up” – I want this to win. It made your payday loans blogger cry.

Related Video (what the Oscars are REALLY about):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QUacU0I4yU